L'ÉCONOMIE, MORE FUN ... IN THE PHILIPPINES !

L’embellie, que dis-je la tempête de ciel bleu, continue et l’archipel baigne dans l’euphorie.

L’économie philippine ne s’est jamais aussi bien portée qu’en ce premier trimestre de 2013.
Trois indicateurs sont tout de même à surveiller de près :
L’inflation, la monnaie et le chiffre des exportations.

Il ne faudrait pas non plus que le secteur de la construction, en plein boom à l’heure actuelle, se transforme en bulle immobilière. Les prix flambent dangereusement dans plusieurs quartiers de Manille.

L’inflation est maîtrisée et se situe à 3 / 3,2 % au premier trimestre.
À comparer aux 6,5 % du Vietnam, 5 / 5,5 % de l’Indonésie et 3 / 3,5 % de la Thaïlande.



Une monnaie trop forte pénaliserait la fois les OFW, ces 12 millions de travailleurs émigrés et qui sont majoritairement payés en US $, mais également les employés locaux des BPO (Business Process Outsourcing). A surveiller la parité peso / US$.

Les exportations, après une baisse sensible en fin d’année 2012 et début 2013, semblent retrouver un niveau plus soutenu. Le danger étant que les principaux clients des Philippines se trouvent dans une situation économique plus que difficile : le Japon qui est le premier client et qui absorbe 23 % des exportations philippines, les USA 15 %, la Chine 12 % …

Principales exportations de l’archipel : composants et produits électroniques 40 %, noix de coco, ananas, abaca 7 %. Or, Cuivre et Nikel, meubles, accessoires de mode, bananes, poissons et crustacés représentent chacun quelques pour cent. J’ai répertorié plus de mille produits exportés par les Philippines, en général en très petite quantité.

Une chute brutale de la demande de composants et produits électroniques pourrait fortement affecter les exportations philippines.

Restons optimistes, les fondamentaux demeurent excellents.   

Looks like economy is beginning to be really more fun in the Philippines.

This, as the Philippine economy exceeds expectations by expanding by 7.8 percent in the first quarter, a growth a Cabinet official says was among the fastest in the region.

The country's gross domestic product spike from January to March was the highest recorded in the Aquino administration, and the third consecutive quarter that registered above 7 percent growth.


It was also an acceleration from the 6.5-percent growth the economy posted a year ago. The Philippines in 2012 expanded by a surprise 6.6 percent.

Robust first-quarter growth was driven by strong performance in the manufacturing and construction sectors, Statistics Chief Jose Ramon Albert said in a statement.

Albert also cited high consumer and government spending, bigger investments in infrastructure, as well as sweeping financial and trade reforms as contributors.

The country's growth was the "highest among the major East and Southeast Asian economies," including that of China, Socioeconomic Planning Sec. Arsenio Balisacan said.

PH's growth topped that of Indonesia (6.0 percent), Thailand (5.3 percent), Vietnam (4.9 percent). China grew by 7.7 percent in the first quarter.

While welcoming the robust first-quarter performance, Balisacan said the government should be vigilant against downside risks, as well as be able to address constraints to the growth momentum.

Sustaining growth in sectors with high potential and allowing the poor to tap into growth centers should also be among the top government priorities.

Linking economic growth to job creation and productivity, the Cabinet official said that the government will put emphasis on innovation, technology and research and development.

"What all these demands is a greater sense of urgency among us in government as well as better coordination between and among the various agencies..." Balisacan said.


He also urged the business sector to expand their interests and generate more jobs amid, noting the opportunity presented by a recent investment frade rating from global debt watchers Fitch and Standard and Poor's.

"We remain positive in our outlook and we will translate this into positive action to achieve inclusive growth," Balisacan said.

"We hope that the private sector will maintain a positive outlook as well, and translate this into greater participation in the growth process," the Cabinet official added.  


Les photos qui illustrent ce post sont de Yen Baet.


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