GUERRE DES PRIX ... DANS LES AIRS !
Les grandes compagnies
aériennes du Sud-est asiatique sont confrontées à une guerre des prix ainsi
qu’à une forte concurrence en provenance des compagnies low costs sur les
trajets de moins de trois heures.
De plus, sur
les routes Asie / Europe, les grandes compagnies comme Singapour Airlines,
Garuda et la Thai se font tailler des croupières par les compagnies du
Moyen-Orient comme Etihad, Saudi, Qatar Airways, etc.
Imaginons un
vol de Manille à Ho Chi Minh, un vol d’une durée de deux heures, avec un retour
le lendemain. Un vol normal via Philippines Airlines 181 USD, un vol via Cebu
Pacific Air… moins de 100 USD, mais avec une promo moins de 80 USD et si vous
vous y prenez bien à l’avance, le vol est pratiquement donné.
Donc il ne faut
pas se faire d’illusions, sur des vols courts comme Manille, Hong Kong / Hanoï
/ Ho Chi Minh / Kuala Lumpur / Phnom Penh, etc. les grandes compagnies vont
avoir des difficultés à rester compétitives.
Il va leur
falloir s’adapter ou disparaître.
Le nombre de passagers à transporter est en constante augmentation, mais la guerre des prix fait rage.
Le nombre de passagers à transporter est en constante augmentation, mais la guerre des prix fait rage.
Locked in a war of attrition as competition drives
fares down, Southeast Asian airlines urgently need to craft more sustainable
strategies for growth in an increasingly crowded market.
Aggregate January-March revenue dropped 6.5% on the
year to $5.64 billion at five Southeast Asian carriers on the Nikkei Asian
Review's Asia 300 list, marking a fourth straight quarter of decline. Cebu Air,
which operates Philippine budget carrier Cebu Pacific Air, and Malaysian rival
AirAsia managed year-on-year sales growth. But sales fell at Thai Airways
International, Garuda Indonesia and Singapore Airlines with the emergence of
Middle Eastern players on European routes.
The yield, or revenue per passenger per kilometer,
also points to a tougher environment. Even Cebu Air, which achieved sales
growth by expanding service, suffered a 5% drop in yield.
All the carriers achieved significant growth in net profit
except Garuda Indonesia, which was hit hard by exchange rate fluctuations. The
quintet's combined net profit more than doubled on the year to $624 million --
the highest since comparable data first became available with the
October-December quarter of 2010.
But this owed much to the windfall from cheap crude
oil. Crude averaged about $45 a barrel over the first three months of 2016,
about 40% less than a year earlier. Had fuel prices held steady, Thai Airways'
net profit would have plunged 48% for January to March instead of jumping 32%.
Lower fuel costs could accelerate the downturn in
fares, Singapore Airlines CEO Goh Choon Phong told reporters in May while
announcing financial results for last fiscal year. There are concerns in the
industry that carriers could take advantage of cheap crude oil in a race to the
bottom on prices.
Southeast Asia still has room for growth. Air
passenger traffic jumped 53% from 2010 and 2015 to 567 million and is expected
to reach 608 million this year, according to Nomura Securities Malaysia. The
four carriers besides Garuda Indonesia all logged year-on-year growth in
passenger volumes in the January-March quarter.
Airlines are looking into new, less-established routes
in a bid to get ahead without cutting fares. AirAsia launched in June direct
flights from Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur to Tehran. It is also improving access
between Malaysia and Chinese regional cities. Cebu Air is building up service
between Davao and other Philippine cities to such international destinations as
Bangkok and Hong Kong. Garuda Indonesia is expanding its fleet by 10 planes
this year, with nine going to subsidiary Citilink for short-range flights
between Indonesia's various islands.
Singapore Airlines began flying between its home
country and the Indian cities of Chennai and Amritsar in May through its Scoot
budget carrier, with plans to begin service to Jaipur in October. The company
plans to increase Scoot's carrying capacity by 51% and to better integrate it
with fellow budget carrier Tigerair, creating a model for medium-haul low-cost
carriers.
Crude prices are headed back up, and airlines must
devise new growth strategies fast, said Paul Yong of DBS. It is imperative for
them to turn to a more efficient business model based on their strengths rather
than continue their airfare price war.
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