3/13/2012

NOUVELLES ... DU CHÔMAGE !

Encore de très fortes disparités entre les chiffres officiels du Gouvernement philippin et le Social Weather Station.

Compte tenu de ce qu’il m’est possible de constater sur le terrain, j’aurai plutôt tendance à pencher en faveur des chiffres du SWS. Les enfants qui ne vont pas à l’école, le nombre de personnes qui vont glaner dans la forêt, la fréquentation des marchés, le nombre de squatteurs …

De plus, l’étude porte sur les adultes, elle ne prend pas en compte ces enfants entre douze et dix huit ans, qui ont quitté le système solaire et qui se débrouillent pour ramener quelques pesos à la maison ; ou qui pour certains survivent dans la rue !

Unemployment among adult Filipinos has increased to 24 percent, with some 9.7 million Filipinos without jobs as of December 2011, according to pollster Social Weather Stations, citing its non-commissioned survey.

“The December 2011 Social Weather Survey was conducted from December 3-7, 2011 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults,” SWS said in the survey results published on its website.

The December survey is a slight deterioration from the unemployment rate of 22.9 percent in June 2011. On the basis of 9.7 million as the number of unemployed, the total labor force would be 40.42 million Filipinos when the survey was administered last December. 33.3% did not renew their contract.

Based on an SWS chart, 33.3 percent of the 9.7 million unemployed Filipinos either did not renew their contract or were laid off.

The chart also showed that 37.5 percent of the unemployed resigned or voluntarily left their jobs, 20.9 percent never worked, and 8.3 percent lost their jobs because their places of employment closed down.
A breakdown of the job history of the SWS unemployment survey respondents breaks down how many of the 9.7 million unemployed were laid off, contract not renewed, voluntarily left and never worked before. Below-20% unemployment rate.

The SWS said unemployment fell below 20 percent only thrice between May 2005 and December 2011. Unemployment hit a record high of 34.2 percent in February 2009, it added.

Unemployment was relatively high among women and among the younger members of the labor force, following the pattern in previous surveys, according to the SWS.
Among men, the ratio dipped to 15.2 percent from 17 percent previously, while it increased to 35.6 percent from 25.6 percent among women.

Unemployment was highest in the 18-24 age group — at 49.1 percent. Among those aged 25-34 years, unemployment was at 29.9 percent.
The jobless rate was at its lowest among the 35-44 and 44-and-up age brackets at 18.7 percent and 17.3 percent, respectively.

Disparity with official figures
The SWS survey gave its media partner BusinessWorld, a daily newspaper, the first shot at publishing the December survey.

BusinessWorld noted the difference between the SWS results and the National Statistics Office's official unemployment rate of 6.4 percent as of October 2011.

The SWS interviewed respondents who were at least 18 years old, and used the traditional definition of unemployment as comprising those not working and at the same time looking for work.
It excluded from this survey those not working who were not looking for a job, such as housewives, retirees and students.

BusinessWorld said the government defines the lower limit of the labor force at 15 years of age.
The SWS used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults and sampling error margins of ±3% for national and ±6% for area percentages. Contrast to the NSO findings The Aquino administration disputed the results of the SWS unemployment survey.

Labor Secretary Rosalinda Baldoz said the SWS survey and its results are “not comparable with the quarterly Labor Force Survey of the National Statistics Office (NSO), which is the official reference of the government and by the World Bank, ADB, IMF, ILO, and other Philippine development partners.”
“Historically, the SWS survey results on unemployment are higher than the results of the LFS,” Baldoz acknowledged.

Presidential spokesman Edwin Lacierda pointed out that the NSO survey has 54,000 respondents.
According to the NSO unemployed Filipinos in 2011 numbered 2.8 million and the unemployment rate was 7 percent for the whole year.

The unemployment rate in 2011 was at 7 percent according to the National Statistics Office (NSO) Labor Force Survey. Aside from having a lower minimum age, the NSO also has a wider definition of employment and narrower definition of unemployment compared to the SWS parameters. NSO counts as unemployed "all those who, during the reference period are 15 years old and over as of their last birthday who have no job/business and actively looking for work."

"Also considered as unemployed are persons without a job or business who are reported not looking for work because of their belief that no work was available or because of temporary illness/disability, bad weather, pending job application or waiting for job interview. "

NSO counts as employed "(t)hose who do any work even for one hour during the reference period for pay or profit, or work without pay on the farm or business enterprise operated by a member of the same household related by blood, marriage or adoption,"

Counted among the employed are those "who have a job or business but are not at work because of temporary illness/injury, vacation or other reasons."

"Likewise, persons who expect to report for work or to start operation of a farm or business enterprise within two weeks from the date of the enumerator's visit are considered employed.," the NSO said.
The NSO said that "out of the 61.9 million population 15 years old and over, about 40.0 million were in the labor force or economically active,” last year. The SWS survey had a smaller base—a labor force of 40.42 million Filipinos at least 18 years of age.

Baldoz said 1.156 million new jobs were generated in 2011. She said part-time employment grew by 794,000 while full-time employment rose by 352,000.

She conceded that underemployment posed a “major challenge” in 2011, as the number of underemployed persons rose by 401,000 to 7.163 million.


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