5/25/2011

CHEDENG ... NOUVEAU SCENARIO ?

CHEDENG  ...  EN APPROCHE !

Storm signal raised over several Provinces!

State weather forecasters warned Metro Manila residents Wednesday they may feel the wrath of tropical storm "Chedeng" (Songda), which it said had been moving westward for the last few hours.


Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) officer-in-charge and Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul Jr. said there is a "scenario" that Chedeng may hit Samar, then Bicol, and then Metro Manila.


"Kapag tumama sa Samar, base sa climatological record, ang susunod na tatamaan Bicol. At kung tumama sa Bicol, ang posibilidad na tatamaan ang Metro Manila ay naroon po. Yun ang second scenario para di mabigla ang ating kababayan na may ganoong posibilidad. Samar-Bicol-Metro Manila ang track line," Yumul said in an interview on dwIZ radio.


He said PAGASA is still gathering data and may be able to better assess by noon the chances of Chedeng hitting Metro Manila.


Yumul said they considered the "second scenario" after noting the direction of the storm had changed from west-northwest to westward for the last "six to seven hours."


Initially, he said the forecasts had indicated Metro Manila may feel the effects of Chedeng from Friday to Sunday but only through rains brought by the monsoon that the storm enhanced.

"If it continues westward, there will be a greater chance of it hitting Samar instead of Cagayan-Isabela area," he said.



Rainfall estimate


Yumul said Chedeng may bring much rain, drawing from the South China Sea.

"Kapag hinihigop ni Chedeng ang habagat, magsasanib ang dalawa at yan ang ibubuhos na ulan sa Metro Manila (There is the possibility of 'Chedeng' merging with the monsoon to dump rains on Metro Manila)," he said.

For his part, Science Department Secretary Mario Montejo said the agency is keeping track of Chedeng. Even if it does not pass through Metro Manila, it will enhance the monsoon rains."


Potential cyclone after 'Chedeng'

PAGASA also said it is monitoring a low-pressure area that may potentially become the fourth cyclone to enter Philippine territory this year.

Should the LPA become a cyclone and enter Philippine territory, it will be codenamed "Dodong."

"Sa model na ginagamit namin may nakikita kaming papasok pag-alis ni Chedeng. Malayo pa po (ito); sa ngayon ay kaulapan pa lang yan," PAGASA forecaster Mario Palafox said in an interview on dzBB radio.
Philippine Red Cross (PRC) chapters in Luzon have been placed on full alert and tasked to deploy their amphibious vehicles, rubber boats, ambulances, and other assets to respond to the threat tropical storm ‘Chedeng.’

PRC chairman Richard Gordon said over 500 volunteers are closely monitoring the situation in their areas, ready to send out teams to identify affected families and provide emergency needs.

PRC secretary-general Gwendolyn Pang said their volunteers can serve hot meals, distribute relief goods, and provide emergency shelter to people displaced by the storm.

She appealed to residents of areas affected by and in the path of Chedeng to stay home and avoid coastal areas, river banks and mountainous places.

Pang advised families to prepare their supplies of water, food, emergency lights and survival kits.


Storm watch updates on Chedeng from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Adminidtration (PAGASA) show the storm heading west northwest to Luzon and possibly making landfall on the Pacific coast of the Cagayan Valley region in about 72 hours.

Chedeng is moving at 17 kilometers per hour, packing 115 kilometer per hour center winds, according to the PAGASA report as of 11 p.m.
Over 100 trucks have been deployed to the Bicol region in preparation for the possible effects of tropical storm “Chedeng" (Songda), which is expected to make landfall later this week.

As the Bicol region — especially lowland areas like Albay — is prone to flooding, each truck sent to the area has been equipped with a rubber boat, life vests and various medicines.

The Office of Civil Defense (OCD) has made clear that while forced evacuation is not yet in the works, several Army units have been sent to the area to help provide disaster relief.

One Army unit of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has received special intensive training for search and rescue efforts.

In a TV interview with GMA News’ Lia Mañalac, Captain Eric Alfonso of the AFP said that the army has a special unit which has received special intensive training in search and rescue operations.
Aside from Army units, Navy, Air Force and Philippine National Police (PNP) units have been fielded as well.

According to the OCD, old-school early warning devices like batingting (alarm bells) and pito (whistles) will be used instead of the police sirens requested earlier.

Raffy Alejandro, chief of Regional Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council (RDRRMC) Region V, said that local warnings of potential tidal waves or storm surges would likely prove more effective than warnings issued from headquarters.

“Kapag tsunami o storm surges, kailangan talaga local warning ang gagana don (In cases of tsunami or storm surges, local warnings are best)," he said.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has raised storm signal no. 2 over the Samar provinces and the Bicol provinces of Catanduanes, Albay, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Sorsogon.

Storm winds ranging from 60 kph to 100 kph will blow over these provinces. Storm "Chedeng" (Songda) was spotted 365 kilometers east of Catarman, Northern Samar as of 4:00am Wednesday.

The latest forecast is for Chedeng to reach Isabela or Cagayan by Saturday.

PAGASA has also raised storm signal no. 1 over Marinduque, Masbate, Burias Island, Ticao Island, Southern Quezon, Polillo Island, and Biliran Island. These areas will have storm winds 45 kph to 60 kph strong.

Chedeng has slowed down to 13 kilometers per hour (kph) but has maintained its west northwest direction and top center winds strength of 115 kph.

PAGASA said Chedeng will enhance the southwest monsoon, which will bring rains over the Visayas and Mindanao.

By Friday morning, the storm is forecast to be 120 kilometers southeast of Casiguran, Aurora.


Second scenario

Meanwhile, PAGASA warned Metro Manila residents Wednesday Chedeng might hit the National Capital Region, as the storm had been moving westward for the last few hours.

PAGASA officer-in-charge and Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul Jr. said there is a "scenario" that Chedeng may hit Samar, then Bicol, and then Metro Manila.

"Kapag tumama sa Samar, base sa climatological record, ang susunod na tatamaan Bicol. At kung tumama sa Bicol, ang posibilidad na tatamaan ang Metro Manila ay naroon po. Yun ang second scenario para di mabigla ang ating kababayan na may ganoong posibilidad. Samar-Bicol-Metro Manila ang track line," Yumul said in an interview on dwIZ radio.

He said PAGASA is still gathering data and may be able to better assess by noon the chances of Chedeng hitting Metro Manila.


Rainfall estimate

Yumul said Chedeng may bring much rain, drawing rainclouds from the South China Sea.

"There is the possibility of Chedeng merging with the monsoon to dump rains on Metro Manila," he said.

PAGASA also said it is monitoring a low-pressure area that may potentially become the fourth cyclone to enter Philippine territory this year.

Should the LPA become a cyclone and enter Philippine territory, it will be codenamed "Dodong."

"Sa model na ginagamit namin may nakikita kaming papasok pag-alis ni Chedeng. Malayo pa po (ito); sa ngayon ay kaulapan pa lang yan," PAGASA forecaster Mario Palafox said in an interview on dzBB radio.

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